The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don’t seem to believe so. A minimum of in 2 cases.

Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a specifically popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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“All the cash is being available in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. “We require Arizona State to cover +13.5.”

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked to a number of bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “very reputable gamer.”

Although reputable money has actually been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.
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“We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee added.

While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn’t the only game in town. We chatted with multiple bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has crept up somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively at a lot of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.

“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. “I would not be amazed if this line sneaks up a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State cash.”

Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat higher bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.

“We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it’s remained,” Gable stated. “It’s good two-way action at that number right now. The total has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55.”

He did note, though, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The preferred flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What caused the line flip? Put simply, the wagering action.

Despite the fact that Georgia’s starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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